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A document claiming to be a "rough outline" of Steve Jobs's Macworld keynote was leaked on Wikipedia last week and is now making the rounds. Paul Boutin and I disagree: He thinks it's unquestionably fake. I think it's plausibly real. But we both think so for the same reason: It's more than a bit boring, lacking the big-boom announcements that typically open and close a Macworld keynote. I think that adds to its verisimilitude. For one thing, the really secret stuff would never make it into a circulated draft — and the truth is that Macworld keynotes contain vast stretches of mundane material, sustained only by Steve Jobs's force of personality and the audience's eagerness to hear the big news. If it's a fake, I say it's a well-crafted one. Here's an analysis that shows why.

MacWorld January 2008 Keynote Rough Outline; draft 5 Greetings! Welcome to Moscone Center Quick Overview: iPod/iTunes - iPod has been extremely profitable for us this holiday season - Sales figures, market share - Our new models are doing better than ever - 3 iPod games released last month accidentally (supposed to be for today) - Another new game today: Chess - iTunes doing extremely well (sales figures/market share) - Today: 30 indie labels releasing their entire catalogs in iTunes Plus - Many more to follow in the next few months

iPod numbers are traditional at Macworld keynotes as Steve recaps the holiday season and releases some sales numbers ahead of the quarterly earnings call. The three iPod games released last month likely refer to Peggle, Bomberman and Sonic the Hedgehog which were released just before Christmas.

iPhone - Best iPod ever - Sales figures, market share - Sales beyond our wildest dreams - Much more than the 1% market share we asked for in January - Starting today: 8GB $399, 16GB $499 - Four times the memory as original iPhone for the same price - iPhone is coming to Japan in March with NTT DoCoMo - SDK is unveiled!

Pretty standard fare: The memory bump is a natural upgrade to match the sizes offered in the iPod Touch and we know that Apple has been in negotiations with NTT DoCoMo to be the Japanese distributor of the iPhone. The software development kit, the package that allows non-Apple developers to make software for the iPhone, has been in the works for months.

iPhone/iPod Touch SDK - Apps and Widgets - Using Cocoa with Objective C - Developers submit programs as source code, not executable - Specify iPhone or both iPhone/Touch (certain features iPhone only) - Set your own price: Apps $0-6.99, Widgets $0-$2.99 - Users buy/download in iTunes Wi-Fi Store / iTunes Store (Mac/PC) - Automatic updating wirelessly or docked

- Demonstration of exporting from XCode 3 to iTunes Store
- Submits source code to Apple for validation (make sure that people aren't abusing the system, prevent malware and viruses)
- If using microphone or GSM, iPhone only; otherwise, available for both iPhone and iPod Touch
- Apps can be free or up to $6.99; Widgets free or up to $2.99
- Developers recieve 70% of revenue for their products
- Licensed under Apple Mobile Software License
- Can download wirelessly from iTunes Wi-Fi Store or docked to computer from iTunes Store
- Demonstration of wirelessly downloading (and running) the app submitted earlier
- Apps and widgets can be rearranged on front screen; front screen scrolls to show all apps/widgets
- Resubmit updated versions of apps; when added to store, iPhone/Touch will ask you to update it next time you use it (or next time you dock the iPhone/Touch)
- Developers can get their hands on a beta version of the SDK tomorrow on ADC and start developing; final version due early February
- iTunes 7.6 and iPhone/iPod Touch Software update 1.3 allowing for Apps mid-February

We opined back in November that it would make sense for Apple to sell iPhone applications through the the iTunes Store — it would give the company control over possibly malicious apps and give access to yet another stream of revenue.

Example apps/widgets Apps:
- iChat (coming with 1.3 update) (AIM, Jabber/Google Talk)
- Quick demonstration
- RSS Feed Reader (coming with 1.3 update) (read feeds online or off)
- One of our partners made something cool: (scrobble tracks played on iPhone/touch wirelessly without syncing w/ computer) Widgets:
- Dictionary (coming with 1.3 update) (quickly look up words, translate, use wikipedia)

- Quick demonstration
- Yellow/White Book (coming with 1.3 update) (search for contacts, add them to your address book directly from the app, will sync back with address book on your Mac/PC)
- Sports Ticker (coming with 1.3 update) (choose your sports and teams, get updates on their progress)
- Another partner: Twitter (update your Twitter on the fly, see your friends tweets)

- Try these out on the show floor today

Nothing notable here, except for the partnership with Twitter. Many iPhone users I know are avid Twitter users, via the text-message interface. A direct Web app would be a welcome addition.

- Sales are getting better and better every day
- Hardware sales figures/market share
- Leopard released October; doing spectacularly
- Sales figures/market share
- Selling extremely well; estimated to overtake Tiger in terms of marketshare by June if you only count the new Macs that come with it preinstalled; even quicker if you include boxed copies
- 10.5.2 out today
- many bug fixes, also addressing a lot of issues and complaints users had such as list view with stacks and certain HIG non-compliance issues

New MacBooks!
- What would MacWorld be without a new Mac? (sorry about last year)
- Completely redesigned MacBook
- Completely aluminum body like MacBook Pro
- 13" screen at 1440x900
- Two colors: Black and Silver
- Looks gorgeous at 0.8" thin
- A major feat of engineering
- patents abound
- DVD drive pops open on side when eject button is pressed
- New on all notebooks and iMac: iSight HD (720p)
- New backlit keyboard based on recent Apple Keyboard revisions (keys slightly lighter than that of laptop casing, colorwise)
- New matching MagSafe cable (Aluminum ends, cord color matches that of keyboard)
- New matching Apple Remote (slightly smaller with larger overall buttons)
- Intel GMA X3100 graphics
- 3 models
- Completely phasing out the combo drive on all product lines today
- BTO models can upgrade all the way to 2.6GHz/4GB Memory/320GB hard drive
- 4.5 hours of battery life
- Starting at $1199

This would be the subnotebook that the Apple fanboys (myself included) have been talking about for months.

Product Refreshes
- Refreshing Mac Pro and Mac mini today
- Mac Pro now with Penryn!
- Base model 2x2.8GHz dual core/1GB/NVIDIA GeForce 7300 GT 256MB/250GB(1x250GB)/1x16x double-layer SuperDrive
- Upgradeable to 2x3.2GHz quad core/16GB/NVIDIA Quadro FX 4500 512MB/4TB(4x1TB)/2x16x double-layer SuperDrives
- Starting at $2,499
- Mac mini gets slight speed bumps and double-layer SuperDrive in all models
- Base model 2.0GHz IC2D/1GB/100GB
- BTO Upgradeable to 2.4GHz IC2D/4GB/320GB
- Starting at $599

Here's where this draft starts going off-track. Apple introduced the Mac Pro refresh last week during CES. Additionally, the specs quoted here are different than the ones in the refreshed machines. Apple watches have been claiming that the Mac Mini would get discontinued for years, but it has stuck around. I suspect it fills a small niche for Apple and doesn't disrupt the rest of the line, so why not keep selling it?

One More Thing
- Been brewing for a while
- YouTube's been in Apple TV and iPhone/iPod touch: now it's in iTunes
- Download YouTube videos straight to iTunes or from iPhone/iPod Touch for later offline viewing (sync back to computer)
- Coming in iTunes 7.6 and iPhone/iPod Touch 1.3 updates

Thanks for coming, and enjoy the expo!

Well, that's an underwhelming "one more thing," but remember that the "one more thing" at last summer's Apple Worldwide Developers Conference was YouTube on the iPhone. In an informal poll of friends with iPhones, hardly any of them use the YouTube app with any regularity.

More noteworthy than what is in this outline, is what isn't. There is no mention of the widely publicized iTunes Store movie rentals deal with 20th Century Fox and Disney. This deal will almost certainly be announced Tuesday. Why isn't it in this outline? Likely because it wasn't nailed down until late December. This, too, suggests to me this could be a real, outdated outline, since a faked version would have included the deal.

And if this outline is real, it explains another mystery: Apple's sudden Mac Pro revamp during CES, a week before Macworld. Dropping the Mac Pro from the keynote and swapping in movie rentals as a "one more thing" could be an easy last-minute change.

So is this keynote outline real? We'll likely never know; keynote outlines, according to insiders, change up to the last minute. And in a way it doesn't matter. Seeing a keynote rendered as a dry outline, listing new products as bullet points, not fabulous objects of desire, just reminds us how much Steve Jobs adds to the show.