Is Plaxo ready to sell to Facebook? - Valleywag Comments

Is Plaxo ready to sell to Facebook?

scottwired — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 23:11:41 PST

I'd heard a comcast acquisition of Plaxo was all but done -- that these discussions have been going on for months.

scottwired

Is Plaxo ready to sell to Facebook?

ScalaWag — Sun, 06 Jan 2008 00:52:58 PST

@DaveMcClure500Hats: Yes, I realize that was a slip of the tongue :) Perhaps Owen purposefully baited you by suggesting Facebook's private valuation could give it a currency?

Even if I do make it to San Diego, do not expect me to be introduced by my VW identity. I am just one politically incorrect ScalaWag who can go without extra attention - refer to my prior comment.

Finally, I agree with all your points on valuations.

ScalaWag

Is Plaxo ready to sell to Facebook?

DaveMcClure500Hats — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 23:56:40 PST

@scalawag: please don't misinterpret my remarks.

i didn't say *they* were the fools, and the 'fool' reference was to the 'Greater Fool theory'... in other words, Ballmer & LKS are betting that *other* people will place an even higher valuation on FB in the future.

to be honest, i think they're probably right. but anyone with a unbiased perspective would have a hard time saying Microsoft wasn't incredibly motivated. not sure what the story was with LKS, but he's been up & down the rollercoaster before.

personally, i think the rational # is probably more like $5-10B at the moment. but give them another year or two of growth & some improved monetization, and they'll be punching thru the $15B number no problem.

(there, good enough to earn me back my 'Silicon Valley Tool' moniker? if not, please come to my conference where i'll be kissing up to multiple social network platform vendors all at the same time ;)

DaveMcClure500Hats

Is Plaxo ready to sell to Facebook?

ScalaWag — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 21:30:55 PST

@DaveMcClure500Hats: Whoa, Dave. You just stated that M$FT and the Hong Kong dude are fools for buying into Facebook? Careful with your words, brother. That is if you still want to do business in this town :)

ScalaWag

Is Plaxo ready to sell to Facebook?

DaveMcClure500Hats — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 21:15:09 PST

my point is there's an inherent discount to deals done with inflated *private* stock... not so with "inflated" public stock, since it's equally convertible to cash.

so that $15B "valuation" isn't the same as a public market cap.

thus, less incentive to do acquisitions *just* for the sake of diversifying revenue, which is arguably what eBay has been doing for the past 3-4 years.

FB has a tougher job convincing would be target acquisitions that its paper is worth $15B until it's either public, or some greater # of fools buy into the current private valuation.

DaveMcClure500Hats

Is Plaxo ready to sell to Facebook?

Owen Thomas — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 15:22:33 PST

@DaveMcClure500Hats: Nonsense. Private companies can and do use stock for acquisitions all the time. It is a fair question whether the acquired company will accept the acquirer's paper, but it's far from impossible.

Owen Thomas

Is Plaxo ready to sell to Facebook?

DaveMcClure500Hats — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 08:26:27 PST

>>But Facebook's lofty $15 billion valuation gives it a currency for acquisitions.

gotta disagree there owen.

when you're PUBLICLY valued for ridiculous prices, then you can go on buying sprees because people are buying your stock for cash.

when you're PRIVATELY valued thru the nose, you can only go on buying sprees for however much cash you have on-hand. which isn't to say that $300M is chump change, but you can only buy 2 or 3 Plaxos, not 10 of them.

dunno about the rest of that soap opera you've got up there, but i gotta think Plaxo is worth more to some big dumb old DinosaurCo who will pay up to figure out social networking & take the 10-30M accounts at face value, rather than Facebook who already knows it inside out & has 150M accounts of their own.

DaveMcClure500Hats