This builds off of a previous model I explained in Valuing Online Video Properties with Web Metrics and can be applied to any destination site. Instead of trying to determine value based off unique visitors, it makes more sense to view this from a "user-engagement" perspective (i.e. with the accompanying metrics).

It's awfully hard to accurately measure what constitutes an actual person on the web with existing measurement tools. So perhaps this model is more relevant to establishing ad rates and valuations of the sort.

Not to get sidetracked-let's get back to Facebook. Using my model, Facebook values at $2,930,775,392.

See spreadsheet here

For these destination web sites, we should strive to apply some kind of fundamental analysis for baseline valuations. A model doesn't have to be overly complex, but rather should go farther than unique visitors alone. As the field of web analytics evolves we should be able to apply more rational (I use that term loosely) valuation models to online real estate.

A simple valuation model can also aid investors as more destination sites go public. A model that weighs in time spent on site will reduce the likelihood of investors being duped by juiced traffic numbers (through adware, clickfraud, SEO, etc.). The model that I proposed is just a starting point…

ejt113

Owen Thomas

Rick

Q: so how about a gentleman's bet on the market cap at the end of 1st day of Facebook liquidity (IPO or buyout)?

A) <$10B, i buy you 1 beer for every $1B under.
B) = $10B, push.
C) >$10B, you buy me 1 beer for every $1B over.

whaddya say? put your money where your charts iz?

DaveMcClure500Hats

[misanthropytoday.wordpress.com]

andyfox1979

for the record i don't think FB is worth anywhere near the high end of my analysis here:
[www.watchmojo.com]

but the flip side is that an asset is worth what *someone will pay* for it, and there is enough a) desperation out there and b) giddyness surrounding FB to drive up the price.

and, for an asset to be worth someone (ie. bought) then the seller must have a floor price. in light of the fact that FB would walk away from anything in the low-single digits and consider all of those variables, in an "auction of sorts" the price could raise to $3.3B and would not top $6B.

Again, the breakdown, here:
[www.watchmojo.com]

ashkan

Alex