Valleywag
Gartner analyst Steve Prentice predicted last May that 80 percent of Internet users would be "engaged" in virtual worlds by 2011 — meaning, most laymen took it, that eight out of 10 Internet users would actually, you know, be logging on to metaverses like Second Life and living la vida digital. Prentice's claim came in for fresh scorn when he recently warned corporations of Second Life's security hazards — not that anyone's using the virtual world to store confidential corporate data. Still, people asked, Which is it, Steve — dangerous den of hackers or mainstream amusement? Neither, it turns out.
Called to account for this on the Metaversed Second Life podcast, Prentice explained that he meant "active" users — people who spend a lot of time on the Net. Crunching current data, he estimates there are about 400 million "active" users, which would mean that by 2011 there would be 320 million people engaged in all manner of virtual worlds. That's still a disturbingly, and improbably, high amount. "This is not a game, this is not a toy, not something to just brush under the carpet," says Prentice. "This is going to be as big as the World Wide Web." Save us all..
Comments
Didn't one of the Star Trek series have a virtual world, entertainment system?
I'm not an expert on any of the series and have only seen a few episodes of the first two or three, but I seem to have a memory of an episode which had Spock pulling-off what we'd now call VR glasses after experiencing some kind of adventure or possibly a love story.
Maybe I'm wrong about the Star Trek reference and I'm not sure what that has to do with much, but it seems to me that there probably is a future for these virtual worlds, but I think they'll need to be more immersive and the scenarios would probably need to be more scripted with if/then statements.
Otherwise, though gaming with avators is obviously popular, I think that we're a long ways from these worlds becoming a preferred entertainment device by the majority. And, though it's just my opinion as an amateur futurologist, but we probably won't get there until VR is more mainstream and more affordable.
PS) They didn't tag it for Valleywag, but Jezebel spotlighted a story last week about a divorce which claimed the husband's SL, as part of the grounds.
Now, if you could get a pair of those virtual reality glasses and "immerse" yourself opposite a character blessed with Halle Berry's body, Goldie Hawn's personality and Paris Hilton's reputation -- Then, you might have something.
@Magister:
I think you are talking about the halodeck? Yes who doesnt want one of these, however that technology is very far away. I imagine it will be possible one day to reproduce a virtual environment you can touch and better interact with.
Most people like Mary Jane simply have narrow and short term vision. Does the UI suck? Yes. Is there massive amounts of strange shit going on there? Yes. Will the technology greatly improve over the next 5 years? Of course.
Mary you still have an open invite from me to take you through some of the interesting things going on in SL. Would make a great story I'm sure whither your experience was positive or negative. Seems only fair seeing how you are writing all the SL stories here yet have no experience with it.
@seanpercival: I'm sure it will someday be possible for us all to have a "halodeck", but unfortunately, I think that it'll probably take something along those lines for the virtual worlds to achieve Mr Prentice's 80% subscription rate.
@MJ
Second Life cultists always accuse critics of "clearly having no idea what they're talking about". Despite (ashamedly) quite comprehensive experience with the game myself over a period of years, when I wrote my articles outting the whole economic scheme for what it is, I was roundly dismissed as "having obviously never spent any time in Second Life".
Yes, if only you'll come visit our Temple Hall, gently guided by seanpercival, you'll see the light leads you to our pixelated utopia, Mary Jane. All Hail The Lindens. I swear when the VCs force the sale of the company at long last, some unfortunate UPS delivery guy will stumble upon a whole office full of lifeless bodies wearing black sneakers, Noggin-Logo-Rip-Off-Hand-Amulets, and big smiles knowing they've left their earthly bodies in order to join with The Matrix.
In the case that you actually haven't, I envy you.
Psst...Mary Jane! I think you meant 40 million, not 400 million in the article above. Unless you REALLY want "seanpercival" to love you. *wink*
@elvenjewel: I listened to that segment four or five times. It's horribly static-filled and evil, but I'm fairly certain he says a range between 250-400 million. I appreciate the warning though.
Extrapolating from the linked article, I'd say the 400 million users in 2011 is in reference to total internet users and the 320m is 80% of that number.
Hey this is VW, no need to be accurate on numbers anyway! Hi MJ! See you on your next SL post! :D
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