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The power of early adopters

The study of social influence, by Duncan Watts of Columbia University, shows that most-popular lists, the common feature of social media sites, make hits bigger, because users look to eachother's choices as an indicator of quality. A law of cumulative advantage, in which the popular becomes more popular, applies. But more important is his conclusion that the outcomes are erratic: it's not simply that audience gravitates to the best tracks or news headlines; like any herd, its course appears chaotic.

In one controlled test in Watts' experiment, the song 'Lockdown' emerged as number one song; in another similar group of users, it ranked only 40th. So what's the lesson for any producer of content, or service, for that matter, on the internet?

The early adopters are even more important than one thought: regardless of a product's intrinsic merits, an early signal of popularity can make all the difference. Which helps explain why we're all obsessed by Technorati rankings, for instance. The initial support of a small group of influencers, as savvier publicists already know, is critical even to mass-market products.

2:09 PM on Mon Apr 16 2007
By Nick Denton
678 views
2 comments

Comments

  • Pretty much everybody in Hollywood (and in New York publishing circles) has known this for years but it is nice to finally have some scientific data that confirms it. What this tells me -- invest in viral and guerilla style pump and dump; seed comments, dummy up downloads, even buy a bunch of your newly released singles on ITunes and Amazon to build momentum.

  • @scruzio:
    Or, you know, make something that people will actually want to use.

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