So typical for New Yorkers to think that everything comes down to money. The New York Post's late-to-the-game article on Facebook this morning had just one interesting, unreported tidbit among the rehash: The stakes in Microsoft and Google's race to invest have been raised to as high as $1.5 billion — or 10 percent of the company, valuing it at $15 billion. Frankly, I'm skeptical. While Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg would be stupid not to take all the money he can off the table, his outside investors — a list which includes Peter Thiel, Sean Parker, and Accel Partners — don't want their stakes diluted that much. Selling off that large a chunk of Facebook would shrink their collective holdings — as much as 27 percent of the company, we hear — down to less than a quarter. That's just one reason why money doesn't matter as much as the Wall Street set would have you believe.
Rather, money does matter, but not in the way the Post thinks. As important as the upfront investment is, the terms of a separate agreement to carry ads are just as vital. And the devil here is in the details. Facebook rightly fears that giving Google access to its ad inventory would let it learn the secrets of targeting ads to social networks. Microsoft, on the other hand, is far less likely to figure things out.
Microsoft, however, has the lion's share of Facebook's U.S. banner-ad inventory through 2011. It's a deal that is lucrative in the short term for Facebook, but will handicap it in the long run.
But I think Facebook's figuring a way around it. The simple way, of course, is to take Microsoft's money and restucture the advertising deal to make Microsoft a backstop to Facebook's own ad efforts. As Facebook's own ad sales grow, Microsoft's presence on the site will slowly dwindle. I suspect Facebook is seeking similar terms for Google on international ads, so it doesn't make the same mistake it did with Microsoft.
And if that doesn't work?
Facebook recently trademarked "SocialAds," reportedly the name for the system it plans to unveil in New York next month. While Facebook is growing fast, the name of the game in online advertising is running a network. AOL has Advertising.com; Google has AdSense; and Yahoo has its Yahoo Publishers Network. By selling ads on other websites, these players expand their reach, gather more data on which ads are effective, and make better use of their salespeople.
Even if it doesn't wrestle back control of its U.S. ad inventory from Microsoft, and even if it lets Google sell international ads on its behalf, I bet that Facebook will start selling ads on other websites, targeting the users of those sites based on their activity on Facebook. It doesn't need to share private data with those independent publishers to do so; it can just serve up the ads, charge higher rates for better targeting, and lure those websites out of the giants' grasp.
In theory, of course. Facebook's advertising technology is young and untested. And to test it, it needs data; to get data, it needs ad inventory. That's why the Post botched this story. Facebook has a hard choice: Cold, hard cash upfront, or a chance at Google-like riches down the road. It's not as simple as just cashing a big check — even though that's the only kind of story East Coast media seems to understand.







Comments
Someone said something in a video about a week ago about Facebook's problem being that the ads are competing with something FAR more interesting than ads: friends. It's not like Google, where people searching for "iPod" might actually want to buy an iPod.
Money doesn't matter? Investors will gladly settle for a slightly smaller piece of a much bigger pie. Would you rather own half of a $1 billion company or a quarter of one worth $15 billion? Playing MS and Goog against each other is first and foremost about inflating that valuation as high as they can. Look, Facebook is fun, but their ad "targeting" thus far has been piss poor and I doubt there's much Google could learn from them on this front.
@sample032: You are missing the point. On Facebook people might be looking to buy iPod exactly because their friends have one.
@ScalaWag:
You are also missing the point I think Owen is trying to make, to a certain extent anyway.
If Facebook can serve ads based on the large amount of information they gleam from each profile and sync ad campaigns with certain demographics until they develop a larger set of data it could eventually come into play when developing an ad network that serves ads on other websites. They essentially can further develop their delivery sensitivity to the 'wants and needs' of certain tech-savvy demographics, and an advertising system like that would gain some traction immediately in the 'web2.0' community as the user bases are normally similar and most of these start-ups are going to start looking for a revenue stream other than AdSense and prayer.
Even if their service is shitty, they immediately have a foot in the door with a lot of small companies and developers and can start getting circulation outside of Facebook quickly. I doubt this is the 'end-game' for Facebook, because I think Facebook is one of the few social networks that hasn't been managed solely on the hopes that they'll get bought out, but it's probably a diversification into a market there's no reason they shouldn't be fairly strong in.
@ChiefCynic: Well, duh. But the question is whether to sell 5 percent or 10 percent of Facebook at the same valuation, not whether to take a smaller investment at a lower valuation. Current investors make out better, actually, if the new investors get a smaller stake.
@owen well, duh. but if you can't get the one ($15 billion valuation) without the other (bigger stake) than you'll just have to muffle your sobs in your for-now-sky-high (but still potentially ultimately worthless) shares.
And as I've said elsewhere, Facebook obviously has a huge advantage in serving up ads to Facebook users. But move outside Facebook to some sort of effort to replicate Adsense, YPN, etc. and Facebook has a lot of catch up to do because it's behind in both data and the technology to exploit that data and serve up relevant ads. Where's the clamor among advertisers for yet-another-ad-network?
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