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If Microsoft won-won-won, AOL and Yahoo lost-lost-lost

microfaceGoogle's Sergey Brin is bummed. MySpace slackers-in-chief Tom Anderson and Chris DeWolfe probably couldn't taste their breakfast this morning either. It's the day after Microsoft and Facebook's announcement and while we know for the pair it was a salesman's win-win-win, somebody's got to be the lose-lose-loser. But cheer up, Google and MySpace, the verdict is in and it ain't you.

MySpace is fine. It has 200 million accounts worldwide, and there doesn't seem to be anything Facebook can do that MySpace can't. Open platform and APIs for developers? On the way. Targeted advertising? Already done.

And Google? Oh, they're fine. And they're glad to tell you so. Repeatedly. Loudly. And only a wee bit defensively.

For a real loser in this deal, try portals AOL and Yahoo. Both could have owned the social network space through their vast user base and IM and email products. Instead, AOL is laying off thousands, and Yahoo's executive team is shrinking daily.

Pali Capital analyst Rich Greenfield told me more than 40 percent of AOL and Yahoo portal visits start with email. Instant messaging drives that figure above 50 percent. But those eyeballs are going away, he says, because the gabbing that goes on over Facebook and MySpace is already eroding the use of IM and email. Microsoft's investment, despite CEO Steve Ballmer's mid-courtship negging, confirms this erosion isn't a fad.

Want a loser? Don't look to Facebook and Microsoft competitors MySpace or Google. Look to the companies the whole industry is leaving behind.

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3:22 PM on Thu Oct 25 2007
By Nicholas Carlson
1,396 views
2 comments

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