FB's valuation is driven by the perception it can serve as a platform (or launching pad) for derivative businesses. Without that perception, FB is a $3-5 B company. Period. When developers lose enthusiasm for the "platform," every FB employee has their net worth cut by 67%.

Building gimmicky widgets that serve no real use, third-party developers had too much success, too early, too easily, on Facebook's platform. For all his puffery, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg is correct that useful applications could and should be built on the connections between people and their shared interests. Yet so far, I can't think of a Facebook application I've installed that I can't live without. So why should the developers who built so much junk continue to be successful? They shouldn't. And if Zuckerberg's new rules force these developers to dream as big as he does — sometimes awkwardly and in public — then good.

Think your friends are hot? Let them know by adding them to your 10 Hottest Friends List! Get friends to add you to boost your own Ranking!

Developers, both small and large, told us they hated the idea. Still, since Facebook owns the platform, Zuckerberg should have been able to ignore their criticisms and protect Facebook's new moneymaking plan. Now, instead, there's a new tab on user profiles for just the News Feed. When he launched Facebook's platform, Zuckerberg drew comparisons to Bill Gates, the creator of another powerful platform. But Gates bullied developers, not the other way around.

1. Current Facebook profiles allow users to move application boxes around their profile wherever they like. Zuckerberg's new profiles won't allow as much customization. "The question is whether users will like the return to a uniform "profile" that looks the same for everyone. I would bet that users actually prefer to customize the look & feel of their profiles," an exec at one of the major widgetmakers tells us.
   
2. Zuckerberg wants to integrate the News Feed with the Wall. One developer tells us: "Mixing in 'X wrote on Y's funwall" along with more personal messages from friends may deteriorate the quality of the new wall/feed feature as a whole."
   
3. Facebook widgetmakers hate the tabs on Zuckerberg's new profile. One complains that most apps will suffer due to them: "By default a few apps will get their own tab and most will be relegated to the 'more' tab." Another source tells us this is one area where Zuckerberg has definitely caved to developer pressure.

   Facebook has some improvements in the latest version which should mitigate some of this effect on developers. Nevertheless, a substantial fraction of traffic to developers' apps will likely be lost as navigation to new tabs is unlikely to equal current profile traffic.

   
   
4. This search bar better not disappear like it does in the other profile preview. If it does, one developer asks:

   How will users easily find their applications and search for new ones as well as do a quick search of their friends? Getting users to adopt to such a massive change without any major problems is going to be a huge x-factor.

So Evans Data is holding their Developer Relations Conference here in SF at the fabulous Argent Hotel, site of many a drunken Java developer's undoing. Bill Roth from BEA keynoted in a rather muted way, refusing to elbo the competition in this mixed crowd, unusual for him. But the real excitement is that, as these valley execs navel gaze for the crowd, there's almost no one in the audience who doesn't have their email client open. With all the key clicks, you'd think that these people are taking copious notes. Wrong. Everyone is bored with hearing about how to form a develolper community. They'd much rather work.

And:

Dear god in heaven, Jean Elliott, Sun's director of developer marketing just told a roomfull of evans data attendees about the Underpants gnomes from South Park. Specifically, she referenced their business plan: Step 1: Steal underpants Step 2: Step 3: Profit!

Sounds an awful lot like Sun's current business model!